The Dilemma of Absolute Truth in Theories

Throughout my career in investment and business management, constructing decision-making systems and making decisions have been critical components of my work. I need to study decision-making more thoroughly and spend more time on it than people in other industries. Since decision-making is central, I naturally focus on the correctness of decisions and the origin of truth. Similarly, as a manager in business, I need to make correct decisions or ensure the company as a whole can make proper decisions, even if they are not optimal or absolutely correct, at least within the best of its capabilities. In post-mortems, I often revisit past scenarios and consider how things might have unfolded if I had made different decisions.

In one thought experiment, I imagined myself in the era of the geocentric model, suddenly realizing that in that time, the geocentric model was considered the truth until the heliocentric model emerged. Even after the heliocentric model appeared and people realized the geocentric model was not the truth, they still mistakenly believed the heliocentric model was the truth until it was overturned as well. This means that over the thousand years from the geocentric to the heliocentric model, whether humanity believed in the geocentric or heliocentric model, some future theory would eventually overturn the theories they accepted, and humanity would never reach the final, absolute truth. Faced with this reality, how can I be certain that the theories in my mind today won’t be overturned a century from now or at some point in the future? Even if I think endlessly, can I reach the ultimate truth? Even if I believe I’ve touched absolute truth, how can I be sure it is indeed absolute and not a fallacy that will be overturned by some future theory? If I am unable to answer these questions, how should I address this situation? Should I become hesitant, ignore the dilemma, or seek another perspective to alleviate it?

After some reflection, I arrived at a simple answer: I cannot claim to have grasped absolute truth. From another perspective, those who firmly believed in the geocentric model lived their entire lives without possessing absolute truth, yet they were not punished beyond their capacity for mistaking the geocentric model for absolute truth. During that period, society continued to progress, and various problems troubling humanity were still resolved. When the geocentric model was overturned, a stumbling block in human development was removed. However, whether or not that block is removed, as long as people continue to think, revise, and explore, society will progress, and people can live better lives. As long as we do not claim to have mastered absolute truth, avoid acting on the premise of possessing absolute truth, and approach new ideas with an open mind—embracing and even experimenting with them—we may receive more feedback and achieve better outcomes. Similarly, this process may not require an absolute truth, and truth itself may not be as important as many people imagine.