Perception of Intelligence

When perceiving the intelligence of an intelligent agent, a key assumption I consider critical is that intelligent agents with a low intelligence degree cannot fully perceive the intelligence of intelligent agents with a high intelligence degree. For instance, a cell (a low intelligence degree intelligent agent) cannot fully perceive the behavior of a human (a high intelligence degree intelligent agent), meaning it cannot understand the logic of their behavior, grasp the patterns of their actions or reactions, or accurately predict their responses or behaviors. Similarly, assuming an ant colony has a higher intelligence degree than an individual ant, the individual ant cannot fully perceive (cognize) the intelligence of the ant colony (assuming the ant colony is a higher intelligence degree intelligent agent). This means the individual ant cannot fully understand, grasp the patterns of, or accurately predict the colony’s operations.

Extending this to society, a phenomenon emerges: individuals with a low intelligence degree struggle to fully comprehend those with a high intelligence degree because the former lack the volume of information, logical depth, and information processing capabilities of the latter. Thus, the former cannot fully grasp the behaviors, abilities, preferences, or conclusions of the latter. In this dilemma, human observers (those with a low intelligence degree) cannot assess the intelligence of the observed (those with a high intelligence degree) through actual intelligence manifestations, such as opinions or logic. Instead, they resort to alternative evaluation methods, such as observing the target’s clothing, vehicle, resume, social influence, or wealth, which are non-intelligence-related traits used to indirectly recognize and partially perceive the observed individual’s intelligence (ability or strength). Conversely, individuals with a high intelligence degree can more easily cognize and better understand and predict the behavioral logic of those with a lower intelligence degree.

In capital markets, there is a saying: the stock market is an excellent indicator of economic environment predictions. The stock market typically forecasts economic changes 3–6 months in advance, often outperforming the predictions of most economists. This can be analyzed using the above perspective: stock market changes are driven by billions of individual trading behaviors, forming a higher intelligence degree intelligent agent through market transaction mechanisms. While economists or professional investors exhibit a higher intelligence degree than most ordinary investors in economic forecasting, they still fall short compared to the stock market, constructed from billions of intelligent agents. Thus, individual humans struggle to outperform the stock market in economic forecasting. Similarly, predicting the stock market’s operations is challenging for investors and analysts, with few consistent winners. This is both a real-world example of low intelligence degree individuals constructing a high intelligence degree intelligent agent and of low intelligence degree individuals being unable to fully cognize or predict high intelligence degree intelligent agents.